Start here: where demand for bitcoin payments could come from
A research notebook. Last updated November 9, 2026.
Bitcoin payment technology works better than ever, yet few people pay with bitcoin. That gap was hard to miss at conferences throughout 2026. This library asks where demand could actually come from: which people, needs and situations self-custodial bitcoin payments could serve better than anything else.
The working thesis
Draft. It will be rewritten as the research comes in.
What’s missing is demand, and demand comes from products that serve real needs, not from protocols alone. Most of the ecosystem’s attention goes to infrastructure. This library looks at people instead: what they do and make with money today, especially where existing payments serve them badly.
What we’ve learned so far
From quick scans of all areas and the first deep dives. To be tested.
- People say they want bitcoin; they act on dollars. Crypto salaries moved to stablecoins; in crisis economies, people spend in stablecoins and save in bitcoin.
- Bitcoin wins where something else carries the meaning: a ritual, a community, or a real freeze. Low fees alone haven’t been enough.
- Rituals spread payments socially: receiving a gift makes people more likely to send one.
- In community money, the pain is bookkeeping and trust, not the transfer itself.
- Consumers don’t want agents to pay for them yet, even with spending limits.
- The last mile is being built country by country, for example phone numbers as Lightning addresses in Kenya.
Research areas
| # | Area | Question | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Community-driven economies | How do communities pool, give and exchange money, and what do they need? | Deep dive, first draft |
| 12 | Earning in bitcoin | Who gets paid in bitcoin today, and what do they need from a wallet? | Quick scan |
| 13 | Agentic payments | Will agents spend and earn bitcoin, and do people want to set limits once? | Quick scan |
| 14 | Dollars and bitcoin | Why do merchants ask for USDT, and how should bitcoin wallets handle dollars? | Quick scan |
| 15 | Money that can’t be frozen | Who needs censorship resistance today, and what do they use? | Quick scan |
| 16 | Payments that feel different | Gifting, payments as expression, micropayments, games | Deep dive, first draft |
| 17 | Brand and culture as demand | How do brand, campaigns and collaborations create demand? | Quick scan |
| 18 | Last-mile infrastructure | Getting money in and out without lock-in (supporting area) | Quick scan |
The list will change as research reveals new areas or merges existing ones.
Documents
- To do: open work, including where contributions would help
- Method: how the research is done and written up
- Landscape: context from the wider conversation, including Spiral’s recent posts, payments in numbers, and key projects
- Stablecoins, unpacked: what “stablecoins” actually covers, who wants dollars and who doesn’t
11–18: one file per area, starting as quick scans- Group orders: a teardown of what managers built and Group orders: research kit: the first direct research for area 11
- Auto-research: where AI agents could check claims and keep numbers current, and a one-page pilot to test it
Log
- November 8, 2026: stablecoins page. Deep dive on payments that feel different (gifting and expression). Group orders teardown and research kit. Quick scans of all areas (12–18). Library set up; method and landscape drafted; community-driven economies added.